BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Texas has surged: up 546% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+546%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has surged in Texas: up 546% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±941.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±941.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±941.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.001.7
20270.290.001.7
20280.280.001.7
20290.280.001.7
20300.280.001.7

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Circle5320241993
Dalhart3820251999
Plains3220181982
Texline2520251975
Friona1520242001
Panhandle1320112001
Altuda1219811981
Post1119711971
Cactus820251994
Channing619801967
Floydada520182005
Kermit319991999
Booker320151975
Eldorado319811981
Valley Spgs219691969
Cottonwood219841984
Gruver220221994
Childress220171994
Pantex220211977
Beaver Creek220052003
Dougherty220171996
Plains220161994
Twichell220252001
Chisos Basin120122006
Hot Springs120111986

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.