BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in South Dakota has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in South Dakota: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in South Dakota is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 0.00–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in South Dakota is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 0.00–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0053
2026100.0052
20278.70.0051
20287.30.0049
20296.00.0048

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Lark Bunting in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maurine25820241968
Indian15420241994
Reva12820241979
Eagle Butte10220151990
Isabel8620151990
Owanka5420221967
Forbes5319841967
Promise5320151971
Ottumwa4820221967
Hayes4620241989
French Creek4220041996
Cottonwood4120241992
Conde3819841967
Rosebud3420111967
Ardmore2820191977
Cedar Pass2720231967
Pioneer2520241992
Tripp2419881967
S. Pioneer2420241994
Marcus2020151999
Badlands1920231982
Volunteer1720191967
Harding1620191967
Lodgepole1520241990
Laplant1420151971

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.