BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in South Dakota has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in South Dakota: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in South Dakota is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in South Dakota is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026110.0053
20279.60.0051
20288.30.0050
20297.00.0049
20305.60.0047

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Lark Bunting in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harding25020251967
Cottonwood12020251992
Eagle Butte10220151990
Isabel8620151990
Badlands5720251982
Volunteer5520251967
Owanka5420221967
Forbes5319841967
Promise5320151971
Hayes4620241989
Cedar Pass4420251967
French Creek4220041996
Conde3819841967
Rosebud3420111967
Maurine3120251968
Ottumwa3020251967
Ardmore2820191977
Pioneer2520241992
Tripp2419881967
Lacreek2420251991
S. Pioneer2420241994
Lodgepole2020251990
Marcus2020151999
Fort Pierre1820251968
Reva1820251979

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.