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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 671% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±824.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+671%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±824.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 671% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±824.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.0013
20262.80.0013
20272.80.0013
20282.90.0013
20292.90.0013

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas819721972
Hooker720241992
Hardesty420151972
Woodward420041993
Keyes320241992
Rosston120011967
Felt120181968
Beaver120131979
Clear Lake120241992
Arapaho119981992

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.