BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Utah has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-93%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in Utah: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±235.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.84
20250.000.000.84
20260.000.000.84
20270.000.000.84
20280.000.000.84

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beryl920192019
Neponset Res520091997
Red Spur Mtn.520042004
Peplin Mountain520052004
Snowville420042004
Cane Spr Des419921992
Westwater320112010
Notom320232023
Grouse Creek219961996
M Warner Res220222022
Delta220051992
Salt Springs120192011
Saleratus Cr120091996
E. Bear Lake120171996
Willow Creek119991992
Hanksville120091992
Bear River120042004
Randolph120161992
Johnson Can120042004
Jensen120081999
Cleveland120211992
Glen Canyon119961992

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.