BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3554.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3554.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3554.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20241.30.006.8
20251.30.006.8
20261.30.006.8
20271.30.006.8
20281.30.006.8

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lark Bunting in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raton2019941994
Roswell919791968
Gallo Arroyo420071997
Pastura420151995
Escondida420072007
Farley320171979
Floyd320191969
Torreon219751975
Cooley Lake220121976
Caprock219971997
Maxwell220171997
Clovis220161994
Aztec219881988
Lake Valley219871987
Nageesi120211980
Grenville120171969
Wagon Mound119731973
Valencia119961973
Gage120032003
Jornada119791979
Sedan120211995
Gallinas120122012
Variadero120141998
Rosebud120231997
La Plata120022001

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.