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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Wyoming has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-73%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Wyoming: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Wyoming is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Wyoming is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026170.0054
2027160.0053
2028150.0052
2029140.0051
2030130.0050

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Tree37519951980
Clarkelen34419781968
Savageton29520252019
Harland Flat25720251990
Crowheart22820042002
Bill17520181974
Caballa Crk12420251992
Newcastle12120251988
Raven11620251992
Meadowdale10420251983
Thunder Basin10120252011
Midvale8320251974
Cheyenne8320251980
Kaycee8120252014
Shawnee7720251988
Highlight7620071980
Upton7320251987
Rozet7120251991
Riverview5820251982
Arvada5420241982
Basin5320251970
Bucknum5020241993
Piney4819901980
Wyarno4320251974
Dwyer4020251992

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.