BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Wyoming has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Wyoming: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Wyoming is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Wyoming is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025180.0055
2026170.0054
2027160.0053
2028150.0052
2029140.0051

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawnee47720241988
Pine Tree37519951980
Clarkelen34419781968
Savageton25720192019
Gas Hills 224620242013
Meadowdale23920191983
Crowheart22820042002
Arminto20820241982
Newcastle20120241988
Bill17520181974
Sand Draw14120241993
Caballa Crk11120231992
Dwyer10320191992
Soda Well10120241979
Worland9820241992
Raven9120241992
Recluse8320241981
Lusk8320241982
Highlight7620071980
Pathfinder7520241982
Tensleep7320241995
Upton6120241987
Kaycee5920242014
Arvada5420241982
Sussex5420241991

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.