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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Kansas has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in Kansas: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±247%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.0016
20260.900.0016
20270.590.0015
20280.280.0015
20290.000.0015

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashland4619841970
Winona3020162001
Hays1920141967
Gove1620171972
Rexford1620242000
Coats1219721972
Damar1120162000
Ulysses1020192000
Coldwater419981969
Hollenberg419701969
Phillipsburg420191967
Lakin320211967
Gray320141967
Missler320191975
Ash Valley320192002
Leoti320222000
Albert219911967
Wallace220221967
Ruleton220221981
Wellington119701970
St John120131969
Barclay120011967
Kanopolis119841970
Leoville120181967
Hanover119751971

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.