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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Montana has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Montana: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Montana is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Montana is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026190.0059
2027190.0059
2028180.0058
2029180.0057
2030170.0057

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ingomar64520251968
Jordan South36220252016
Roy23120251988
Jordan18920241968
Webster17920251978
Ester Lake17920252015
Saco16420252015
Malta14520251975
Custer 213320252024
Powderville12620251968
Glasgow10420251968
Oswego8720251978
Muddy Creek7820152015
Flatwillow7220081968
Winnett6520252017
Coleman Coulee6120242017
Dinosaurs H.M.5820252018
Custer5420222019
Chinook5220252015
Brusett4820241982
St Xavier4420111979
Albion4320251982
Westby3920162016
Lambert3620252021
Cabin Creek3320252018

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.