BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Montana has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Montana: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Montana is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Montana is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025190.0059
2026180.0058
2027180.0058
2028170.0057
2029170.0056

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ingomar47520241968
Jordan18920241968
Jordan South15120242016
Malta14620241975
Powderville12520241968
Ester Lake11620242015
Dinosaurs H.M.9720242018
Muddy Creek7820152015
Flatwillow7220081968
Custer 27120242024
Chinook5820242015
Saco5620242015
Custer5420222019
Coleman Coulee5220232017
Brusett4820241982
St Xavier4420111979
Roy4220241988
Locate4220241981
Albion3920241982
Westby3920162016
Circle3120231969
Glentana3020242015
Glasgow2920241968
Harlem2720211968
Cabin Creek2220242018

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourinebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.