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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Nebraska is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±210.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Nebraska is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.70.0022
20279.60.0022
20289.50.0022
20299.30.0021
20309.20.0021

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agate20420011967
Marsland15520212018
Agate 211020252002
Brownson10020252021
Kimball8920251975
Berea3720251980
Murray Lake3120251987
Dalton2620251968
Paxton2520161967
Crescent Lk2520251980
Champion2120182018
Gordon1820251975
Piester Lake1320251967
Hay Springs1120252018
Belvidere1019701968
Sutherland1020242024
Wheeler Co920101982
Crookston720252019
Benkelman620251986
Ringgold420241985
Brownlee420161990
Berwyn 2420162015
Stratton320251975
Eagle Creek319871967
Table320081973

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.