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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Nebraska is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+216%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±240.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Nebraska is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510.00.0022
20269.90.0022
20279.70.0022
20289.60.0022
20299.50.0022

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agate20420011967
Marsland15520212018
Brownson10920212021
Agate 26220242002
Paxton2520161967
Hay Springs2520242018
Dalton2320241968
Berea2320191980
Champion2120182018
Belvidere1019701968
Sutherland1020242024
Gordon920241975
Wheeler Co920101982
Kimball820221975
Stratton420241975
Benkelman420221986
Ringgold420241985
Brownlee420161990
Crookston420192019
Culbertson420242018
Berwyn 2420162015
Eagle Creek319871967
Table320081973
Arthur320231985
Crescent Lk320171980

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.