BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in North Dakota has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in North Dakota: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1637.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1637.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1637.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0057
20270.000.0057
20280.000.0057
20290.000.0057
20300.000.0057

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Lark Bunting in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Golva8820251979
Ft Yates7620041968
Parshall4920061982
Sheyenne Lk3919931980
Lark3219861968
Montpelier2819931990
Buchanan2519921967
Glen Ullin2520251982
Lake George2420061967
Bowman2320251967
Carson2220251988
Cedar Creek1220221968
Tobacco920181968
Bentley720241988
Solen620252005
Dunn Center520251968
Zap420241967
Sydney319831967
Danzig220061982
Kempton219891987
Dickinson220221968
Gorham220251968
Powers Lake220221980
Forman119881969
Edgeley120141980

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexicooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.