BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in North Dakota has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Bunting Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in North Dakota: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1725%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1725%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1725%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0057
20260.000.0057
20270.000.0057
20280.000.0057
20290.000.0057

Lark Bunting Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Lark Bunting in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Yates7620041968
Parshall4920061982
Sheyenne Lk3919931980
Lark3219861968
Montpelier2819931990
Buchanan2519921967
Lake George2420061967
Cedar Creek1220221968
Golva1220231979
Tobacco920181968
Glen Ullin820221982
Carson720241988
Bentley720241988
Zap420241967
Sydney319831967
Gorham320181968
Danzig220061982
Kempton219891987
Dickinson220221968
Powers Lake220221980
Solen220242005
Forman119881969
Edgeley120141980
Cooperstown119971981
Wimbledon120001988

Lark Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexicooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.