BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Botteri's Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Botteri's Sparrow in Texas has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-56%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Botteri's Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Botteri's Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Botteri's Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Botteri's Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±757.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±757.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Botteri's Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±757.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.15
20260.050.000.15
20270.050.000.15
20280.050.000.15
20290.050.000.15

Botteri's Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Botteri's Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr320191999
Raymondville220011992
Sejita220122012
Lag Atascosa120221969
Loyola Beach 2120242010
Casa Piedra119971997
San Pedro120231996

Botteri's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonanew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.