BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Botteri's Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Botteri's Sparrow in Arizona has surged: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+218%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Botteri's Sparrow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Botteri's Sparrow has surged in Arizona: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Botteri's Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Botteri's Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Botteri's Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.000.70
20260.330.000.71
20270.330.000.71
20280.330.000.71
20290.340.000.72

Botteri's Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Botteri's Sparrow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dragoon1020091997
Sahuarita820231992
Sunizona 2220242012
Mcneal220241997
Peña Blanca220241975
Patagonia120231972
Sunizona119861969
Rucker120092009
Amado120231993
Pomerene120002000

Botteri's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.