BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Texas has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
207Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Texas: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Texas is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Texas is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.001.3
20260.310.001.2
20270.260.001.2
20280.200.001.1
20290.140.001.1

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran1919991995
Pecos1920172017
Gruver1520161994
Indianola1420241967
Town Bluff1219901971
Weinert1219941969
Cornudas1120181968
Vanderbilt1019761969
Ozona1020211999
Lag Atascosa920241975
Chisos Basin920191998
Castolon820191995
Wink719861975
Kingsville620241969
Dallas619971967
Coyanda Draw620241994
Marathon620232005
Wolfe City519871969
Black Gap520221992
Valentine519871969
Delaware Crk520151971
Shields520011999
Hawley520071994
Loyola Beach420091998
Skellytown420091996

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.