BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Minnesota has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Minnesota: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±772.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±772.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±772.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.080.000.56
20170.080.000.56
20180.070.000.56
20190.070.000.56
20200.070.000.56

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Creek5319911990
Chatfield219691967
Princeton219761976
Glenwood120052005
Hartland119961996
Lakeville120151973
Le Center119961996
Courtland120052005
Beltrami119861981
Osseo119941994
Knapp119991999
Lude119931993
Austin119961996
Wigwam Bay119751975
Edwards119791979
Evergreen119681968
Glyndon120011988
Tenney119801980

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.