BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Washington has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Washington: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.090.000.47
20250.090.000.46
20260.080.000.46
20270.080.000.45
20280.080.000.45

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arid Land Er819961988
Potholes619971996
Moses Lake519791979
Selah320052001
Columbia Nwr320051992
Hatton319931992
Hanford Site219961989
Pomona219981998
Othello219911983
Richland220232006
Horn Rapids220232005
Moses Coulee220211993
Twisp119851985
Brewster120111978
Harrington120052004
Wapato119921971
Mercer120221968
Connell120031968
Bickleton120111983
Sulphur120191996
Quincy119921981
Ewan119991999
Ellensburg120051982
Harwood119961993
Pomeroy120212021

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.