BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Montana has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Loggerhead Shrike in Montana. See the full index history below.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Montana is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Montana is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.071.1
20260.580.071.1
20270.580.071.1
20280.580.071.1
20290.580.071.1

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Savage920211968
Lambert920242021
Lindsay820242015
Glasgow620241968
Oswego620241978
Brusett620241982
Ingomar620241970
Wheat Basin620242017
Circle520231969
Whitlash520242009
Virgelle420241979
Jordan420241968
Winnett420232017
Malta320231977
Redstone320241972
Chinook320242015
Saco320242016
Cabin Creek320242018
Flatwillow 2220212014
Sunburst220061973
Harlem220181968
Greenough219961996
Powderville220241970
Custer 2220242024
Gildford220192015

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.