BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Arkansas has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Arkansas: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Arkansas is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Arkansas is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.89
20260.140.000.86
20270.110.000.83
20280.070.000.79
20290.040.000.76

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilson820241993
Eudora520161967
Stark420001967
Centerton420142010
Hickory Ridge420222010
Whitton319851967
Augusta320011967
Saffell320171967
Zion320171972
Lafe320222017
Kelso320162010
Locust Bayou220011967
Harrisburg220191969
Coal Hill219941967
Dell220242010
Havana220132013
Gillett220112011
Ulm220241986
Old Milo120021967
Ramsey119971967
Stamps120231967
Hope119991967
Ashdown120011967
Hughes120231978
West Tyler119841968

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.