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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Kansas has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Kansas: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±241.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.001.9
20270.000.001.9
20280.000.001.9
20290.000.001.9
20300.000.001.9

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thrall619701967
Beloit 2620172006
Melrose520211967
Galesburg420251967
Chapman419811967
Covert420241967
Logan420221967
Lapland320181974
Kanopolis320251967
Reece320252002
Longton320211976
Humboldt220191968
Coldwater220171969
Barclay220251967
Buckeye220141967
Minneapolis220191967
Jewell220051967
Morehead220252000
Trading Post220252000
Lincolnville220242002
Beloit220022000
Rexford220062000
Jewell 2220212006
Wellington120101968
Dalton120241968

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.