BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Nebraska is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Nebraska is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.480.001.3
20270.460.001.3
20280.430.001.2
20290.410.001.2
20300.390.001.2

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton1120251968
Gordon820251975
Belvidere520141967
Crescent Lk520121982
Surprise420081969
Bartlett419761967
Mullen420171990
Johnson320251967
Almeria319921969
Midway319931967
Agate320011967
Oglala Nat. Grass.320251999
Berwyn 2320162014
Julian220091972
Seward220091967
Holbrook220221969
Richland220051968
Petersburg220071970
Oconto219781968
Paxton220071969
Sparta220111967
Eagle Creek220191967
Swan Lake220251969
Kennedy220251976
Table220081976

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.