BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Virginia has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Virginia: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2264.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2264.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2264.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.000.000.53
20180.000.000.53
20190.000.000.53
20200.000.000.53
20210.000.000.53

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covington519671967
Brodnax319981973
Star Tannery219851980
Edinburg219721972
Jerome219841973
Amherst219771977
Concord219811968
Mannboro219821967
Church Road219801966
Taylorstown119821982
Churchville120121966
Stanley119711969
Tryme119801980
Rural Retrt120161987
David119681968
Fincastle119701968
Natural Brid119861975
Big Island119841968
Covesville119811974
Carters Brdg119791966
Shipman119961969
Hall119821972
Waverly119671967
Marion119771977
Saltville120111973

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.