BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in North Dakota is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in North Dakota is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.001.1
20260.340.001.1
20270.330.001.1
20280.320.001.1
20290.300.001.1

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Yates420031968
Zap420241967
Lark319821968
Gorham320181968
Solen320232005
Carson220171989
Glen Ullin220211982
Powers Lake220031980
Walcott119691969
Sydney119771977
Edgeley119981988
Lake George120131968
Cooperstown119921992
Horsehead Lk120111980
Buchanan119921970
Niles119891989
Regan120221968
Dickinson120191968
Dunn Center120241968
Carpio120231967
Loraine119981988
Tobacco120131968
Stanley120241969
Denbigh120211968
Bowman120191967

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.