BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Florida has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Florida: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±154.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.3
20260.000.002.3
20270.000.002.3
20280.000.002.3
20290.000.002.3

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alturas3219861971
Ridge Harbor1520241991
Broward1019731966
Punta Gorda1020131980
Dale Mabry819881966
Myakka Head820111966
Scottsmoor820241968
Kendall819911988
Gardner619991987
Doctor Inlet520071967
St Lucie520241987
Doctors Inlet 2520092008
Shawano 2520072004
Childs420221966
Santa Rosa420031987
Pleasant Gr420071987
Sandy420151987
Hildreth 2420242010
Lovedale420111987
San Antonio320181967
Kissimmee320221987
Palmdale320211987
Flamingo320011983
Webb320241990
Merritt Isl320112000

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.