BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-79%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in New Mexico: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.003.2
20260.770.003.1
20270.680.003.1
20280.600.003.0
20290.510.002.9

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roswell820231968
Lakewood820211980
Maljamar819771975
Salt Lake 2820232002
Variadero820221994
Sunshine Wll820241992
San Antonio719771974
Deming719751968
Logan620231977
Capitan Mtn.520171993
Columbus520241992
Nageesi420241968
Caprock420241977
La Plata 2420162014
Bitter Lake420231994
Red Rock420231992
Lake Valley420241979
Correo319821975
Gage320241968
Salt Lake320011999
Counselor320231994
Corona East319951993
Hobbs320241994
Grenville220241968
Tucumcari219751975

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.