BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Loggerhead Shrike Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in New Mexico: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Loggerhead Shrike Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.820.003.2
20270.730.003.1
20280.650.003.0
20290.570.002.9
20300.480.002.8

Loggerhead Shrike Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunshine Wll1220251992
Lakewood820211980
Maljamar819771975
Variadero820221994
San Antonio719771974
Roswell720251968
Deming719751968
Logan720251977
Jornada520251974
Capitan Mtn.520171993
Columbus520241992
Caprock420241977
La Plata 2420162014
Bitter Lake420251994
Lake Valley420241979
Nageesi320251968
Correo319821975
Gage320251968
Rodeo320251974
Salt Lake320011999
Salt Lake 2320252002
Counselor320231994
Corona East319951993
Hobbs320241994
Tucumcari219751975

Loggerhead Shrike Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.