BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Texas has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
180Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.90.4913
20266.80.3513
20276.60.2013
20286.50.0513
20296.30.0013

Cassin's Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Langtry13320001994
Skellytown11420241995
Texline9720241975
Plains9120241968
Dalhart7320241994
Coyanda Draw6620241994
Catarina5920101970
Girvin5820171975
Comstock5520231967
Ft. Davis5020232004
Cactus4920241994
Girard4820231994
Marathon4720232004
Friona4620242001
Pumpville4620242006
El Indio4420071970
San Saba3820241969
Pear Valley3720241969
Albany3620241969
Altuda3520231967
Delaware Crk3420151971
Stiles3120241995
Williams3120241997
Kermit3019991994
Floydada2920241976

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.