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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Texas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.00.5513
20276.80.4013
20286.70.2613
20296.50.1213
20306.40.0013

Cassin's Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coyanda Draw14920251994
Texline13620251975
Langtry13320001994
Dalhart11920251994
Marathon10220252004
Catarina5920101970
Skellytown5420251995
Plains5220251968
Miami4720251975
Girard4520251994
El Indio4420071970
George West4120251967
Pumpville4120252006
Girvin3720251975
Altuda3520231967
Delaware Crk3420151971
Dougherty3120251995
Kermit3019991994
Pantex2920251974
Cactus2920251994
Pecos2920172017
Encinal2820101969
Williams2820251997
Friona2820252001
Ozona2720221975

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.