BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Sparrow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 6.9–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 6.9–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026276.748
2027276.848
2028276.848
2029276.948
2030286.948

Cassin's Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pep17720241992
Sedan15620251994
Pastura11820251993
Bitter Lake10420251994
Grenville10220251968
Lakewood9220211980
Sabinoso8920211980
Logan8620251977
Cooley Lake8520251968
Capitan Mtn.8520171993
Maljamar7919771975
Variadero7520221994
Clovis7520241993
Floyd7020251968
Corona East6419951993
Roswell6320251968
Farley6220251979
Rosebud5620251994
Maxwell4420251996
Hobbs3920251994
Tucumcari3119751975
Red Rock2620231992
Queen2520211993
San Antonio1719771977
Horse Mtn1220232000

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradokansasnebraskaoklahomatexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.