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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Sparrow has surged in Oklahoma: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cassin's Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 169% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 2.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+169%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 169% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 2.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.42.213
20277.52.313
20287.62.413
20297.72.513
20307.82.613

Cassin's Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Felt6520241968
Hardesty5720241975
Rosston4420181970
Clear Lake3820251992
Keyes3820241992
Beaver2020181979
Hooker1420251992
Tatums1220112011
Jet820222000
Woodward820251992
Cookietown720061978
Erick620241969
Chester519861971
Randlett420251968
Grimes420251967
Lookout420251967
Hollis420251993
Eagle City320101996
Arapaho320141998
Phroso220252003
Mill Creek220141989
Elgin220152014
Reed220091985
Colony219951995
Wichita Mts West120222011

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradokansasnebraskanew-mexicotexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.