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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

16×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cassin's Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Sparrow has surged in Oklahoma: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cassin's Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.62.613
20267.72.713
20277.82.813
20287.92.913
20298.03.013

Cassin's Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear Lake9520241992
Felt6520241968
Hardesty5720241975
Rosston4420181970
Keyes3820241992
Hooker3720241992
Beaver2020181979
Woodward1320241992
Tatums1220112011
Jet820222000
Cookietown720061978
Lookout720241967
Erick620241969
Chester519861971
Hollis520241993
Grimes420241967
Eagle City320101996
Arapaho320141998
Phroso220232003
Mill Creek220141989
Elgin220152014
Randlett220241968
Reed220091985
Colony219951995
Wichita Mts West120222011

Cassin's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradokansasnebraskanew-mexicotexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.