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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Texas has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+107%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chihuahuan Meadowlark Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Meadowlark has surged in Texas: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Texas is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.47–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Texas is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.47–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.422.3
20271.40.432.3
20281.40.452.3
20291.40.462.3
20301.40.472.3

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plains8220251977
Marfa4720252004
Ft. Davis1920252004
Channing1520182017
Texline1020252018
Marathon920252004
Altuda920191967
Lamesa720232013
Casa Piedra619981987
Frankel City619941977
Dalhart620251994
Bear Mtn520251989
Girvin520021986
Saragosa320252022
Sierra Blanc320192008
Chisos Basin220042004
Pumpville220232006
Coyanda Draw220211994
Toyahvale220251996
Kermit219991994
Valentine219801970
Delaware Crk219871973
Mentone220111999
Salt Flat220061995
Canutillo219961996

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.