BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Meadowlark

IcteridaeGrassland birdsSturnella lilianae

Chihuahuan Meadowlark has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+160%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Chihuahuan Meadowlark

The Chihuahuan Meadowlark (Sturnella lilianae) is a North American member of the Blackbirds & Orioles (Icteridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
6.5–17 in long (16–43 cm) — a small to medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 136 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 5 states, most concentrated in the Chihuahuan Desert.
Family
Icteridae · Grassland birds

Notable Chihuahuan Meadowlark TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Meadowlark has surged in surveyed states: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.19–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.19–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.180.64
20260.410.180.65
20270.420.180.65
20280.420.190.65
20290.420.190.66

Where the Chihuahuan Meadowlark Is Detected

BBS routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark, sized by most recent count.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend by State

Chihuahuan Meadowlark population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-43%197030
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a2
New Mexico+26%197061
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Texas+68%196942

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+5%197034
Shortgrass Prairie+175%197231
Sierra Madre Occidental-66%197024
Chihuahuan Desert-30%196947

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 160% since 1969. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.