BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.0010
20260.800.009.9
20270.620.009.7
20280.440.009.6
20290.260.009.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA492023
RuckerARIZONA412009
Mormon LakeARIZONA221974
DragoonARIZONA152009
PatagoniaARIZONA132024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO122024
Clay SpringARIZONA112024
Forest LakesARIZONA82024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA51997
SprucedaleARIZONA52023
McnealARIZONA32024
PrescottARIZONA21998
PomereneARIZONA22009
Peña BlancaARIZONA22000
AmadoARIZONA22007
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22024
BlueARIZONA11984
San SimonARIZONA12010
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
PinetopARIZONA12021
RedingtonARIZONA11996
SahuaritaARIZONA12007
PortalARIZONA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.