BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGrassland birds

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-68%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.0010.0
20270.760.009.8
20280.590.009.6
20290.410.009.5
20300.240.009.3

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RuckerARIZONA412009
AlpineARIZONA332025
Mormon LakeARIZONA221974
PatagoniaARIZONA172025
DragoonARIZONA152009
Sunizona 2ARIZONA82025
SprucedaleARIZONA62025
SunizonaARIZONA51997
Forest LakesARIZONA42025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO42025
McnealARIZONA32025
PrescottARIZONA21998
PomereneARIZONA22009
Peña BlancaARIZONA22000
AmadoARIZONA22007
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA22025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22024
BlueARIZONA11984
San SimonARIZONA12010
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
PinetopARIZONA12021
RedingtonARIZONA11996
SahuaritaARIZONA12007
Clay SpringARIZONA12025
PortalARIZONA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.