BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+175%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Meadowlark has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.008.3
20263.70.008.3
20273.70.008.3
20283.60.008.3
20293.60.008.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CactusTEXAS1542021
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO1161977
PepNEW-MEXICO952024
FloydNEW-MEXICO702024
ClovisNEW-MEXICO462024
PlainsTEXAS462024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO252024
CaprockNEW-MEXICO162024
ChanningTEXAS152018
San SimonNEW-MEXICO92019
SedanNEW-MEXICO82024
TexlineTEXAS82024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO72024
LamesaTEXAS72023
DalhartTEXAS72024
Frankel CityTEXAS61994
HobbsNEW-MEXICO32024
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO22019
LoganNEW-MEXICO22017
KermitTEXAS21999
MentoneTEXAS22011
TenmileTEXAS22022
PlainsTEXAS22017
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO11975
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.