BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+196%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Meadowlark has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.008.3
20273.70.008.2
20283.60.008.2
20293.60.008.2
20303.60.008.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO1161977
PepNEW-MEXICO952024
PlainsTEXAS822025
FloydNEW-MEXICO662025
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO492025
ClovisNEW-MEXICO462024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO212025
HobbsNEW-MEXICO182025
ChanningTEXAS152018
SedanNEW-MEXICO142025
TexlineTEXAS102025
San SimonNEW-MEXICO92019
LamesaTEXAS72023
Frankel CityTEXAS61994
DalhartTEXAS62025
CaprockNEW-MEXICO52025
SaragosaTEXAS32025
KermitTEXAS21999
MentoneTEXAS22011
TenmileTEXAS22022
PlainsTEXAS22017
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO12025
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO11975
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12021
LoganNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.