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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGrassland birds

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Arizona has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chihuahuan Meadowlark Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Arizona is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Arizona is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.005.1
20271.70.005.1
20281.70.005.0
20291.60.005.0
20301.60.004.9

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rucker4120091993
Alpine3320252002
Seligman3120252008
Mormon Lake2219741969
Patagonia1720251968
Dragoon1520091993
Peach Spring1120252009
Sunizona 2820252001
Yampai719731969
Sprucedale620251992
Sunizona519971968
Hunt420061976
Forest Lakes420252019
Rose Wells319681968
Mcneal320251992
Prescott219981983
Pomerene220091969
Peña Blanca220001976
Skull Valley 2220252025
Amado220071993
The Gap119681968
Black Mesa119911991
Portal120181992
Oraibi120222018
Blue119841976

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.