BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in New Mexico has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chihuahuan Meadowlark Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chihuahuan Meadowlark in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in New Mexico is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in New Mexico is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026100.0023
2027100.0023
2028100.0023
2029100.0023
20309.90.0023

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maljamar11619771975
Pep9520241992
Deming8319751968
Floyd6620251970
Engle6119881979
Horse Spgs5520251975
Cooley Lake4920251968
Clovis4620241993
Horse Mtn3720241968
Rosebud2120251994
Pastura2020251993
Corona East1819951993
Hobbs1820251994
Gallo Arroyo1620191996
San Antonio1519771977
Quemado1519971992
Sedan1420251995
Capitan Mtn.1320171993
Datil1219951993
Escondida1220251998
Lakewood1120211980
Columbus1120241992
Valencia1019971988
Carrizozo1020251968
Cerro Verde1020251988

Chihuahuan Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.