BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.4
20261.20.002.4
20271.20.002.4
20281.20.002.4
20291.10.002.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO652024
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO372024
SeligmanARIZONA282024
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO181995
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO162019
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO151997
PasturaNEW-MEXICO152024
Peach SpringARIZONA132024
DatilNEW-MEXICO121995
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO101997
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO102019
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO92001
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO82024
YampaiARIZONA71973
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO62024
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO62012
SanosteeNEW-MEXICO52023
HuntARIZONA42006
CounselorNEW-MEXICO42015
DulceNEW-MEXICO42011
Rose WellsARIZONA31968
TorreonNEW-MEXICO32017
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO32024
DoylevilleCOLORADO22023
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.