BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGrassland birds

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.00.0020
20276.80.0019
20286.70.0019
20296.60.0019
20306.50.0019

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DemingNEW-MEXICO831975
EngleNEW-MEXICO611988
MarfaTEXAS472025
Ft. DavisTEXAS192025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO151977
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO132017
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO122025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO112021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO112024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO102025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO92025
AltudaTEXAS92019
MarathonTEXAS92025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO82025
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO72024
Casa PiedraTEXAS61998
RodeoNEW-MEXICO52025
GirvinTEXAS52002
Bear MtnTEXAS52025
GageNEW-MEXICO42025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO41993
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32025
QueenNEW-MEXICO32019
Sierra BlancTEXAS32019
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.