BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Chihuahuan Meadowlark In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.30.0020
20267.20.0020
20277.10.0020
20286.90.0020
20296.80.0020

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Chihuahuan Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DemingNEW-MEXICO831975
EngleNEW-MEXICO611988
Ft. DavisTEXAS562023
MarfaTEXAS272024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO192024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO151977
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO152024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO142024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO132017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO122024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO112021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO112024
AltudaTEXAS92019
GageNEW-MEXICO72024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO72024
Casa PiedraTEXAS61998
GirvinTEXAS52002
MesillaNEW-MEXICO41993
QueenNEW-MEXICO32019
Bear MtnTEXAS32024
Sierra BlancTEXAS32019
MarathonTEXAS32023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22023
ValentineTEXAS21980
Delaware CrkTEXAS21987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.