BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Texas has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
205Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Texas. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Texas is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 1.2–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Texas is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 1.2–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026111.320
2027111.320
2028111.320
2029111.220
2030111.220

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Dickcissel in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Charlie13520251994
Booker9220251976
Albany9120251969
Bayside 39020252005
Goliad Prairie8820162004
Raymondville8720251969
Pantex8520251977
Petronila8220251968
Hondo8220251969
Haskell7920251995
E Georgetown7819791967
Manor7120242012
Oyster Lake7020251995
Pidcoke 26820252019
Weatherford6120251968
Rhome6120251967
Waka5920251975
Gambill Ref.5820251995
Miami5620251980
Megargel5520251994
Whit Mtn.5420191994
Randado4920151976
Twichell4820251996
Beaver Creek4520251994
Panhandle4420251994

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.