BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Texas has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
203Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Texas. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Texas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 0.86–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.86–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Texas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 0.86–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025100.9720
2026100.9420
2027100.9120
2028100.8920
2029100.8620

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Dickcissel in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twichell14020231996
Goliad Prairie8820162004
Rhome8220241967
Walburg8020241980
E Georgetown7819791967
Rock Island7420241967
Manor7120242012
Oyster Lake6920241995
Bayside 36520242005
Petronila6420241968
Miami6420231980
Gambill Ref.6020241995
Haskell5420241995
Whit Mtn.5420191994
Pidcoke 25220242019
Booker5120241976
Hondo5020241969
Randado4920151976
Albany4820241969
Comanche4620242001
Selden4520241968
Henrietta4320221972
Wolfe City4119871969
Cottonwood4020241967
Charlie4020241994

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.