BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Kentucky is projected to rise about 188% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.57–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+188%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Kentucky is projected to rise about 188% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.57–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.597.3
20263.90.597.3
20273.90.587.2
20283.90.587.2
20293.90.577.2

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Dickcissel in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville2119831966
Joy1320231966
Dixon1220222005
Gatewood1220191966
Bays Fork920191999
Cedar Grove820241966
Morganfield820242022
Bardwell620031967
Apex620182007
Riverqueen520242007
Dixie520191967
Lovelacevile420241967
Iron Bridge419981966
Glencoe420181966
Buena Vista420171966
Canton320241967
Keysburg320241968
Bardwell 2320242006
Hodgenville 2320232008
Levee219711966
Mcbrayer220231966
Hodgenville220011969
Eastview220231967
Drakesboro219921971
Shelbyville219771966

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.