BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Ohio has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has surged in Ohio: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Ohio is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.45–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Ohio is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.45–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.372.1
20271.30.392.1
20281.30.412.1
20291.30.432.2
20301.30.452.2

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Dickcissel in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Napoleon2320251969
Kunkle1820251996
Vickery1520251996
New Dover1320222008
Limestone1120251991
N Baltimore920191972
Botkins720191993
Cosmos620191966
Kingsway420251966
Kalida420191966
London420002000
Enon420181987
Rome420181969
No Kenton320251972
Kenton320251979
Port William320211998
Dunlap319691966
Marion 2220252024
Ashley220182018
Stonecreek220122004
Troy219891967
Petersburg220032003
Kings Creek220151996
Marion220032003
Lattasburg220211995

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.