BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in North Dakota is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in North Dakota is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.007.8
20272.40.007.8
20282.40.007.8
20292.40.007.8
20302.40.007.8

Dickcissel Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Dickcissel in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abercrombie5020121967
Danzig3620121988
Cedar Creek3020221968
Abercrombie 21620182013
Lake George1420231967
Buchanan1120231967
Stanley920211969
Ft Yates720041972
Bowman720231971
Danzig 2720252021
Lark619781968
Montpelier620181990
Forman520251968
Regan520251970
Glen Ullin520251993
Sheyenne Lk520162006
Solen520252005
Kempton420171967
Wimbledon420231988
Bentley420231989
Powers Lake420232021
Walcott320231967
Cooperstown320241970
Horsehead Lk220251988
Carson220241988

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.