BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Minnesota has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.90.009.9
20273.90.009.9
20283.90.009.9
20293.90.009.9
20303.90.009.9

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Dickcissel in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone7120121996
Chandler6120251969
Millville4220251967
Tenney4220121980
Ash Creek4120251975
Mcgregor2620212012
Tyler2520251993
Frontenac2220241993
Tracy2220252004
Arlington2120251967
Fairmont1920251993
Caledonia 21720252013
Austin1720231993
Caledonia1620121994
Ashby1620212006
Huntley1520251967
Redwood Fall1520251979
Le Roy1320251995
Franklin1320252005
Glenwood1320181994
Floodwood1120211999
Backus920222014
Le Center920231993
Gluek820181970
Wylie820231973

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.