BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Minnesota has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Minnesota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Minnesota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.009.8
20263.70.009.8
20273.70.009.7
20283.70.009.7
20293.70.009.7

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Dickcissel in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler9020231969
Big Stone7120121996
Ash Creek6120241975
Worthington4320242004
Tenney4220121980
Huntley3120241967
Fairmont2620231993
Mcgregor2620212012
Redwood Fall2220241979
Frontenac2220241993
Tracy2220242004
Arlington1820241967
Austin1720231993
Caledonia1620121994
Ashby1620212006
Le Roy1520241995
Glenwood1320181994
Floodwood1120211999
Tyler1120241993
Backus920222014
Le Center920231993
Franklin920242005
Courtland820241978
Gluek820181970
Wylie820231973

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.