BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Arkansas has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Arkansas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 13–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Arkansas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 13–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221231
2026221231
2027221332
2028221332
2029221332

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Dickcissel in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Augusta12420011967
Dell11620242010
Augusta 210520162002
Farwell8120182010
Lafe7820222017
Wilson7720241993
Hughes6520231967
Maynard6420241967
Harrisburg6320191967
Kelso6020162010
West Tyler5719841967
Ulm5520241986
England5320242010
Whitton4319911967
Hickory Ridge3120222010
Gillett3120242010
Ashdown2920231967
Centerton2920242010
Saffell2320191967
Yellville1720222010
Ravenden Springs1720152010
Eudora1520241967
South Bend1520231967
Zion1420241967
Coal Hill1320231967

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.