BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Arkansas has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 13–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 13–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221231
2027221331
2028221331
2029221332
2030221332

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Dickcissel in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Augusta12420011967
Wilson11020251993
Augusta 210520162002
Farwell8120182010
Dell8020252010
Lafe7820222017
Maynard7220251967
Harrisburg6320191967
Kelso6020162010
England5920252010
West Tyler5719841967
Ulm4820251986
Whitton4319911967
Hughes4020251967
Centerton3820252010
Gillett3620252010
Eudora3120251967
Hickory Ridge3120222010
Ashdown2920231967
Saffell2320191967
South Bend2120251967
Ravenden Springs1720152010
Zion1520251967
Yellville1420252010
Coal Hill1320231967

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.