BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Michigan is projected to rise about 222% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+222%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Michigan is projected to rise about 222% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.56
20260.200.000.56
20270.200.000.57
20280.200.000.57
20290.210.000.57

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Dickcissel in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilson420062006
Cunard420211994
Big Rapids419881967
Galesburg420211966
Cathro419881988
Sand Lake420172017
New Troy320231972
Hubbard Lake319881988
Hamburg 2220222018
Allegan Wma220151995
Almena219961994
Scottville220212021
Lawrence220211969
Nashville220121969
Monterey220122005
Bell Oak219881972
Bergland120222022
Hungerford120242017
Chippewa Lk.120172006
Belding 2120172017
New Buffalo120141994
Lake City120101973
Coopersville120182001
Belding119891989
Howardsville119951969

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.