BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Maryland has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+197%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has surged in Maryland: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Maryland is projected to rise about 18% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Maryland is projected to rise about 18% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.110.010.21
20250.110.010.21
20260.120.010.21
20270.120.020.22
20280.120.020.22

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Dickcissel in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millington320051995
Emmitsburg320231970
Harmony319961994
Williamsport220221983
Smithsburg220142010
Cokesbury219971997
Vindex120212021
Melitota120231987
Wolfsville120122011
Silver Spg119801980
Piney Neck119891989
Matthews120211970
Easton119661966
Madison120002000
Vienna120112008
Randallstown119801980
Ijamsville120172011
Pomfret119671967

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.