BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Montana has surged: up 859% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+859%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has surged in Montana: up 859% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Montana is projected to rise about 207% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+207%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±195.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Montana is projected to rise about 207% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.61
20260.240.000.62
20270.240.000.62
20280.250.000.63
20290.250.000.63

Dickcissel Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Dickcissel in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hehn Draw1520182017
Webster720232006
Chuffey Spring720232023
Savage420212021
Albion320232012
Brusett320242012
Dinosaurs H.M.320182018
Brandenberg220001994
Miles City220222022
Custer 2220242024
Shawmut220062006
Lindsay120212021
Forsyth120231989
Lambert120242021
Malta120062006
Glasgow120242012
Roy119991991

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.