BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel

CardinalidaeGrassland birdsSpiza americana

Dickcissel has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,503RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Dickcissel

The Dickcissel (Spiza americana) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 1,503 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 34 states, most concentrated in the Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Family
Cardinalidae · Grassland birds

Notable Dickcissel TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 3.0–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–9.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 3.0–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.23.09.3
20266.23.09.3
20276.13.09.3
20286.13.09.3
20296.13.09.2

Where the Dickcissel Is Detected

BBS routes recording Dickcissel, sized by most recent count.

Dickcissel Population Trend by State

Dickcissel population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+4%196838
Arkansas+30%196952
Colorado+434%197441
Delawareinsufficient datan/a4
Georgia+212%198020
Illinois-37%1968105
Indiana-56%196866
Iowa-36%196939
Kansas+31%196967
Kentucky-66%196846
Louisiana-81%196959
Maryland+197%197018
Michigan-63%196843
Minnesota-20%196962
Mississippi+121%196834
Missouri-28%196995
Montana+859%199417
Nebraska-3%196975
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a1
New Mexico-76%198415
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a3
North Carolina-21%199413
North Dakota-53%196945
Ohio+75%196849
Oklahoma+43%196968
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a9
South Carolina-52%19876
South Dakota-34%196956
Tennessee-24%196832
Texas-20%1969203
Virginia-33%198313
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a2
Wisconsin-65%196886
Wyoming+73%199021

Dickcissel Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Dickcissel population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-35%196999
Boreal Hardwood Transition-19%196843
Badlands and Prairies-77%196981
Shortgrass Prairie-12%1969102
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+23%1969129
Edwards Plateau+7%196920
Oaks and Prairies-37%196974
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-12%1968277
Prairie Hardwood Transition-64%1968139
Central Hardwoods+43%1968153
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-66%196975
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-13%196861
Southeastern Coastal Plain-16%196870
Appalachian Mountains-54%196842
Piedmont+58%198030
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+18%197018
Chihuahuan Desert-89%19819
Tamaulipan Brushlands-2%197025
Gulf Coastal Prairie-18%196940

Dickcissel Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 22% since 1968. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.