BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 6.4–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 6.4–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025216.735
2026216.635
2027216.635
2028216.535
2029216.435

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Dickcissel in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RhomeTEXAS822024
WalburgTEXAS802024
E GeorgetownTEXAS781979
DuncanOKLAHOMA632024
Gambill Ref.TEXAS602024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA562024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS542019
AlbanyTEXAS482024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA472018
ComancheTEXAS462024
SeldenTEXAS452024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA442019
HenriettaTEXAS432022
Wolfe CityTEXAS411987
CottonwoodTEXAS402024
MegargelTEXAS392024
GainesvilleTEXAS372024
BeggsOKLAHOMA332023
ChoctawOKLAHOMA322023
WeatherfordTEXAS322024
SadlerTEXAS302024
DuranTEXAS301998
BriteTEXAS292024
OlneyTEXAS282024
LocoOKLAHOMA271985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.