BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Dickcissel in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlacksburgVIRGINIA61988
Pine GroveALABAMA42018
WoodvilleALABAMA32009
OneontaALABAMA32011
GuntersvilleALABAMA22000
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA22002
StevensonALABAMA22024
TalladegaALABAMA22019
LinwoodGEORGIA22018
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA22021
WilliamsportMARYLAND22022
SmithsburgMARYLAND22014
S VandaliaNEW-YORK21997
StonecreekOHIO22012
PetersburgOHIO22003
ParkwoodPENNSYLVANIA22017
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA22021
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA22000
DawsonALABAMA11989
GreensportALABAMA12024
Mt OliveALABAMA11993
BrooksvilleALABAMA12023
LakeviewALABAMA12024
KymulgaALABAMA12014
OakmanGEORGIA11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.