BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.33–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.33–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.6124
2026120.5424
2027120.4724
2028120.4024
2029120.3324

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Dickcissel in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goliad PrairieTEXAS882016
Rock IslandTEXAS742024
Oyster LakeTEXAS692024
Bayside 3TEXAS652024
PetronilaTEXAS642024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA322011
MamouLOUISIANA281982
WinnieTEXAS272024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS242024
Bayside 2TEXAS242004
KatyTEXAS212024
DanburyTEXAS152024
ChinquapinTEXAS152024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA132019
IndianolaTEXAS102023
StowellTEXAS92013
McfaddinTEXAS82016
WoodlawnLOUISIANA72021
Hinkles FerTEXAS72023
MauriceLOUISIANA52024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA52021
Lag AtascosaTEXAS42024
VanderbiltTEXAS41976
KaplanLOUISIANA32023
Moon Lake 2TEXAS32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.