BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.714
2026117.814
2027117.814
2028117.914
2029118.014

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Dickcissel in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS812018
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS582024
ReedsMISSOURI532023
Cole CampMISSOURI531990
YorkILLINOIS512024
MillerMISSOURI452024
RoyaltonILLINOIS432024
DiamondMISSOURI362024
NewberryINDIANA322024
GraydonMISSOURI322024
BrownvilleILLINOIS302024
KarnakILLINOIS302024
CentertonARKANSAS292024
SedaliaMISSOURI262024
WashingtonINDIANA252024
RichlandMISSOURI252021
ColcordOKLAHOMA242022
West PlainsMISSOURI232024
BoxvilleKENTUCKY211983
LincolnMISSOURI202024
YellvilleARKANSAS172022
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS172015
PulaskiILLINOIS162024
CentertownMISSOURI162024
BradyvilleTENNESSEE152021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.