BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Dickcissel In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.0011
20261.10.0011
20271.10.0011
20280.970.0011
20290.890.0011

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Dickcissel in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA892011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA812011
CrookstonNEBRASKA492024
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA492023
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA322011
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA302022
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA292015
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA262022
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA192014
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA182019
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA182024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA162013
Hehn DrawMONTANA152018
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA142015
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA122018
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA112015
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA102019
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA92022
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
HampshireWYOMING92018
WebsterMONTANA72023
Chuffey SpringMONTANA72023
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA72004
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.