BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0024
2026110.0024
2027110.0024
2028110.0024
2029110.0023

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Dickcissel in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaNEBRASKA1552021
WinsideNEBRASKA1052003
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA1042023
ChandlerMINNESOTA902023
KanawhaIOWA852024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA822024
ScrantonIOWA802024
PoncaNEBRASKA772024
Big StoneMINNESOTA712012
PantherIOWA702024
Winside 2NEBRASKA702022
MidwayNEBRASKA632023
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA592011
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA582023
TildenNEBRASKA572024
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA552017
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA542014
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA522024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA502012
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA502014
ZearingIOWA461995
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA442023
WorthingtonMINNESOTA432024
TenneyMINNESOTA422012
MccallsburgIOWA402024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.